How to pave Iran's path to freedom - opinion

IRGC

With careful planning, a transition commission has the potential to inspire confidence and contribute to a more democratic and prosperous Iran, benefitting the Middle East and the wider world.

By NAZANIN AFSHIN-JAM MACKAY

Transitions from authoritarian regimes to democracies offer valuable lessons in balancing external support with internal leadership. Countries like Germany and Japan rebuilt their political systems after devastating wars through substantial external aid, but their success stemmed from aligning reforms with their cultural contexts and ensuring active citizen participation. 

Conversely, recent interventions in Afghanistan and Iraq highlight the dangers of imposing external solutions that overlook local dynamics. These experiences emphasize the need for grassroots-driven efforts to establish lasting democratic stability.

For 45 years, the Islamic Republic of Iran has stifled its citizens’ rights under a theocratic regime born from the 1979 Islamic Revolution. Yet, Iranians have persistently sought to dismantle this system and establish a secular, democratic alternative.

A key example of this struggle occurred in September 2022, following the tragic death of Jina Mahsa Amini at the hands of the regime’s morality police. Her death ignited the “Woman, Life, Freedom” movement, sparking a nationwide uprising with millions on the street calling for not just reforms but full change of regime.

Widespread discontent, fueled by corruption, mismanagement, and economic hardships, coupled with the suppression of fundamental rights, has intensified internal pressure on the regime, leading to protests and calls for regime change. 

Additionally, external factors – such as the weakening of the regime’s regional proxies, including Hamas, Hezbollah, and Assad’s government – have left the Islamic Republic more vulnerable than ever.

This raises critical questions: Will the regime survive, evolve, collapse, or be overthrown? How can a relatively peaceful and democratic transition be achieved, with safeguards in place to prevent violence, chaos, or the rise of another authoritarian regime? 

 

The Iranian opposition forces have long envisioned creating a government-in-exile or an interim transitional council, often bringing together political parties, high-profile advocates, and celebrity figures from the diaspora. Yet, despite these efforts, success has remained elusive. Over the past 45 years, efforts to unite diverse political groups have repeatedly faltered. 

Disparate visions for Iran’s future, ranging from a secular republic to a monarchy, have created deep ideological divisions and a persistent stalemate in coalition building. Competition and power struggles among opposition figures and their followers have further hindered meaningful collaboration, while the regime’s cyber army actively exacerbates these divides and mistrust. 

Compounding these challenges is a widespread wariness of foreign assistance, rooted in a history of outside interventions. Brutal crackdowns not only have limited activists’ ability to organize internally but have also instilled fear, discouraging many from getting involved. Additionally, the diaspora often struggles with legitimacy to reflect the truest most up-to-date sentiments of those on the ground.  

The Woman, Life, Freedom movement revealed the readiness, courage, and resilience of Iranian protesters but also exposed the costs of division. In just a couple of years of the movement, over 700 people, including 68 children, were killed, with thousands more imprisoned, blinded, or tortured. While the movement brought international attention, it underscored the urgent need for a cohesive strategy.

The key reason for stagnation in progress is that the Iranian opposition has repeatedly relied on the same traditional models and strategies to foster political coalition and unity, hoping for different outcomes.

It is time for the Iranian opposition to think beyond conventional approaches. What it requires is a new and fresh framework prioritizing shared objectives over individual agendas – a shift from the tried and tested coalition-building among groups to a model where expertise and management take precedence over identity politics.

Unity is not an impossible goal. A new paradigm must be developed that draws lessons from other successful movements while developing a unique, tailored strategy that resonates with the Iranian people and their specific struggle and immediate needs.

Forming a democracy commission

TO ADDRESS these challenges and avoid past failures, the formation of an Iran Transition to Democracy Commission (ITDC) is essential. This interim body would comprise Iranian technocrats and experts dedicated to steering the country toward a democratic future.

The ITDC would serve as a non-partisan platform, prioritizing practical governance and inclusivity. While its selection process primarily focuses on skills, expertise, and capabilities, it ideally would reflect Iran’s rich diversity.

Initiatives such as rotating leadership roles would promote shared responsibility and balanced representation, fostering trust and collaboration within the group. By establishing a sister network that pairs advocates with partners within Iran, the ITDC can harmonize internal and external efforts, bridging any gaps and staying aligned with the realities on the ground.

The ITDC will act as a neutral platform, utilizing a structured, task-focused approach, managed like a project with clearly defined timelines. It will be divided into two key phases: pre-transition and post-transition, each ideally spanning 365 days or less.

The ITDC would focus on establishing credibility and organization by assembling committed, impartial, skilled technocrats, drafting a road map for transition, and creating a transparent, third-party-monitored “Freedom Fund” for financial accountability.

It would build domestic support by engaging civil society, unions, activists, entrepreneurs, and professionals. The ITDC would cultivate cohesion through non-political means but still seek support and endorsements from political leaders and other factions and emphasize non-partisan inclusivity.

International outreach would involve seeking recognition and support from governments, international organizations, NGOs, and the Iranian diaspora. Additionally, capacity building would include preparing for transitional governance by forming teams to manage key sectors like security, humanitarian relief, and economic stabilization. 

After successfully completing the pre-transition phase and implementing an interim governance framework with well-defined, actionable plans that have garnered significant support from the Iranian community, coordinated calls will be issued for nationwide demonstrations, general strikes, and other collective actions designed to dismantle the existing regime.

The ITDC would ensure safety and order by maintaining public order and continuity of services. Stabilizing the economy would be a priority to prevent financial collapse and support economic recovery. The commission would facilitate the drafting of a new constitution through an elected assembly and prepare for elections by establishing commissions to ensure internationally monitored free and fair processes.

Democratic institutions, such as independent judicial, media, and administrative systems, would be developed. Additionally, the ITDC would strengthen international relations, cultivating trust and diplomatic, political, and economic partnerships to promote peace and diplomacy and attract aid and investment.

The ITDC pioneers an innovative blueprint for Iran’s transition, ensuring a peaceful, inclusive, and effective path to democracy. By fostering internal and international trust and adopting a project-based, non-partisan approach, the ITDC can provide a stable foundation for Iran’s future. 

With careful planning and execution, it has the potential to inspire confidence and contribute to a more democratic and prosperous Iran, benefiting the broader Middle East region and the world.

The writer is an award-winning human rights and democracy advocate, co-founder of the Iranian Justice Collective and Stop Child Executions, and organizer of a network of over a hundred Iranian diaspora groups and other high-profile advocates from around the world.

https://www.jpost.com/opinion/article-837706